Navigating the Waves: The Australian Dollar’s Impact on Your Portfolio

The Australian dollar’s journey since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic has been nothing short of a rollercoaster. Discover how its highs and lows can ripple through your investment portfolio.

March 2020 marked a significant moment as the Aussie dollar dipped below US58 cents, a level not seen in the past decade. Since then, a high of just over US77 cents in 2021 has been followed by a rollercoaster ride, mostly downhill.

In October 2022 the dollar plummeted to US61.9 cents, bounced its way back up to US71.3 cents in February this year but by mid-August it had slipped to a nine-month low at under US64 cents.ⁱ

Many analysts agree that further falls are on the cards with some even predicting the dollar could fall to as low as US40 cents within five years.ⁱⁱ

Factors Influencing the Australian Dollar’s Movements

Given any currency’s susceptibility to changing economic conditions both at home and overseas, the Aussie has had quite a bit to deal with lately.
An uptick in interest rates can bolster the Australian dollar’s appeal, especially if our rates outpace those of the US and other major economies.

If foreign investors buy more Australian assets because they can get a bigger return on their investment, more money flows into Australia which increases demand for Australian dollars. And if investors hold more Australian assets than overseas ones, less money leaves the country, decreasing supply. So, increased demand and decreased supply see the Australian dollar rise.

While the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates by 4 per cent in Australia since May last year as it battles to get inflation under control, rates have also been rising in the US.

The US Federal Reserve has undertaken its most aggressive rate-rising cycle in 40 years with rates now at a 22-year high and signs of further increases likely. This has put pressure on the Australian dollar, narrowing the difference between the US and Australian rates, meaning foreign investors will look for better returns elsewhere.

Economic Shifts and Their Impact on the Dollar

The value of the Australian dollar is also affected by changes in economic conditions as well as rises and falls in other financial markets. For example, in August news that the unemployment rate had increased slightly and an easing in wage price growth led to speculation that the RBA would put a hold on rates, putting a dampener on the Aussie.

Also affecting the dollar was a decline in US share markets in August, confirming the typical pattern of the Australian dollar falling when prices in equity markets drop.

Furthermore, the health of China’s economy is intrinsically linked to the fluctuations of the Australian dollar. China is currently battling soaring unemployment, particularly among young people, falling land prices and a housing crisis, among other ills.

As Australia’s largest trading partner, both in terms of imports and exports, any slowdown in China means lower sales of our commodities and other goods and services and less investment in property and business.ⁱⁱⁱ

The Ripple Effect: How Currency Changes Touch Our Lives

There are advantages and disadvantages of a falling Australian dollar. On the plus side, our exports will be more competitive because our customers will pay less for our goods and services compared with those produced overseas. Conversely, imported goods will be relatively more expensive.

There could also be an increase in tourism – the cost of travel in Australia will be cheaper for those coming from overseas. Unfortunately, those planning an overseas trip will need to find a significantly greater pile of Australian dollars to pay for airfares, accommodation and shopping.

For savvy investors, understanding the currency’s influence on your portfolio is crucial.

For example, if you’re invested in Australian companies that rely on overseas earnings, look at how they handle their exposure to the currency risk. A lower dollar is good news for those with overseas operations and those that export goods. On the other hand, those that need to buy in components or products from overseas may suffer.

In any case, have a chat to us to look at the best way forward in these uncertain times. Stay informed and adapt your investment strategies with the changing tides of the Australian dollar. Reach out to our experts for tailored advice.

i https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/currency
ii https://www.news.com.au/finance/markets/australian-dollar/aussie-dollar-in-free-fall-amid-bloodbath/news-story/929165d65db4dc7d8a97bc7b27b5ab0d
iii https://www.aph.gov.au/about_parliament/parliamentary_departments/parliamentary_library/

This article is intended as an information source only and to provide general information only. The comments, examples, words and extracts from legislation and other sources in this publication do not constitute legal advice, financial or tax advice and should not be relied upon as such. All readers should seek advice from a professional adviser regarding the application of any of the comments in this article to their particular situation.